Scott McPherson's Web Presence

The only thing that kept the SARS epidemic from going full tilt pandemic in 2003 was its incubation period.  SARS was a coronavirus, whose incubation periods are usually 2 to 7 days.  People didn't transmit the disease until the incubation period was over.  Public health officials were actually able to get in front of the disease and beat it back.  Line of sight.  Good thing too, because for every 100 people who contracted it, around fifteen died, according to the WHO.  That number was impacted by the usual issues of age, general health, and so on.  The dreaded 1918 Spanish Flu (H1N1) haad a Case Fatality Rate, or CFR, of 2.5. 

Now we don't really know a helluva lot about this new coronavirus, but we suspect it is not as lethal as SARS.  At least, not yet.  It does currently have a CFR of 3, meaning it appears to be as lethal as the 1918 flu.  We are also being treated to conflicting theories as to how transmissible it is (it appears to be quite good at that), and how long the incubation period is.

From The Hill:    

"Chinese health officials are warning that the deadly coronavirus could be much more contagious than initially thought, as infected patients can spread the flu-like illness before showing any symptoms. 

Wuhan remains under quarantine; twelve other Chinese cities have travel restrictions, bringing the total number of people under restrictions at 35 million, roughly the population of Canada; Disneyland Shanghai to close; more than 800 cases now confirmed in multiple countries, including the US; 26 deaths worldwide, keeping the current Case Fatality Rate at 3%; and a student at Texas A&M may have the disease. He traveled to Wuhan and has flu-like symptoms.

As Angelina would say:

"Well, well."

The Tallahassee Democrat is reporting that two cases of chikungunya virus have been detected in my town.  Both cases are "imported"; that is, the victims contracted the virus abroad and then returned to Tallahassee.

In one case -- communicated to me by one of my spies -- a faculty member of The Florida State University's geology department contracted chikungunya virus while in Haiti doing some field work. 

As of June 14th, there were 42 confirmed cases of chikyngunya in Florida.  All, apparently, imported.

As I type this, the top Alabama health official is holding a press conference.  And a major tip 'o the cap to my buddy Mike Coston for giving me the link!

The health officer says there are three different agents at work in the cluster:  Rhinovirus (4), influenza (I missed the number), and (3) bacterial pneumonia infections. There were multiple and overlapping infections in several of these cases.

The hubub, this official states, is due to the heightened states of alert pertaining to H7N9 and MERS-CoV.

"A clustering of common organisms" is the reason why this group of disassociated illnesses was grouped together.

One death was aged 34; the other was age 55. 

According to this man, "WNL" means "Within Normal Limits," referring to tests.  He says it also means "We never looked," referring to the individual persons who fell ill.  It was the number of persons falling so ill, in such a short timeframe and in such a small area, and in such an environment as we are working in today with H7N9 and MERS, that prompted the closer inspection. 

I like his candor and his folksy demeanor.   Case closed.

However, the question is still out there on Houston.

The cases all come from nowhere.  They involve bright, energetic, athletic students.  They begin feeling feverish, exhausted, shaken. Then they experience violent seizures, are sent into a medically-induced coma.  And then, for two of the three afflicted students, they die.

The Houston Chronicle reports from early May are chilling.  Students 60 miles apart, with no apparent links, succomb to the same symptoms.

Now, in Dothan, Alabama, we are seeing a hauntingly familiar situation unfold.  With the exception of the seizures, the symptoms are strikingly similar. 

A television station much closer to the outbreak -- NBC affiliate WPMI, Mobile/Pensacola, is reporting that:

Doctors investigating the illness have not yet found a common denominator in the patients, whose ages range between the 20’s and 80’s, other than their symptoms. Doctors tested samples from the 7 patients at the state health lab to determine if there is from them to find “strain matching fingerprint” she added.

Doctors are analyzing those tests with investigators from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Atlanta office. State health officials, The Alabama Department of Public Health and the Centers for Disease Control Respiratory Laboratory are analyzing lab tests from all seven patients. Officials hope to have preliminary results on the samples back by Wednesday or Thursday morning.

Okee dokee, it is late Thursday morning.  What do we know?